Climate change on the distribution of Dodonaea viscosa (Sapindaceae): a victim of global warming

Abstract

This study evaluated the impact of climate change on the biogeographic patterns of habitat suitability for Dodonaea viscosa. This research is the first to report the potential effect of climate change on the distribution of D. viscosa at regional and global scales. From a global perspective, the greatest potential habitat loss was observed in Australia. At a regional scale in México, the greatest contraction was observed in the state of Chihuahua. We analyzed the influence of climate, solar radiation, and topography on its distribution under global and regional scenarios. Additionally, we identified areas at risk of potential change and refugia. We considered 34 environmental variables organized into three main categories: climate, solar radiation, and topography. Consistent with our findings, the models identified climate as the primary factor of habitat suitability. The most influential variables were minimum temperature of the coldest month, solar radiation, precipitation of the driest month, and annual precipitation. D. viscosa showed a positive response to global warming, manifested in an increase in population size; however, projections for México are unfavorable, showing habitat suitability loss exceeding 70% in the arid regions of Chihuahua. The species is expected to redistribute to higher-altitude areas in the southwestern United States. These studies enable specialists to design habitat suitability maps that incorporate crucial ecological features for specific areas, track migration patterns, monitor population changes, and understand interactions with suitable habitats.